2020 US General Election

[HCZ_Reborn]

Of course. Why the hell would parties spend any money on them if they didn't? The polls always swing around before an election.
In the context of our election where Labour are all but guaranteed a big win then the campaigns won't end up changing who ends up in power, but on a local level of course they make a difference. If they didn't then they wouldn't happen.


Up to a point, but the context being Trump facing a trial. It wasn't a completely out of the blue "what if", the people answering that question would have known it was a distinct possibility.

I'd agree that a lot of people are so entrenched in their pro or anti Trump views then it literally doesn't matter what him or Biden do, they'll vote the way they were always going to. I believe the verdict will give some people pause though. How many people and whether it's enough to change the end result is questionable. But we won't be able to tell the difference anyway. It's like speculating whether Arsenal would have won the title had we beaten West Ham and Fulham. All other results being equal yes we would, but it doesn't work like that. Results affect other results, there are different pressures when you're leading from the front. So the honest answer is we'll never know.

Campaigns at most are about driving up turnout, people don’t get their minds changed by them. And you’d have to go back to probably the 1970s when a campaign determined the outcome of an election.

Polling science is usually quite good (unlike in say 1992 where the polls said a Labour government and the voters said a Tory government) and polling companies usually are quite good at extrapolating rationale for why people vote the way they do.

So if there is any shift in polling as a result of the conviction you will be able to ascertain why that is


And in fact expect to see a poll quite soon which ask voters “Has Donald Trump’s conviction changed the way you were planning to vote and then ask if yes how”

[Niall_Quinn]

Of course. Why the hell would parties spend any money on them if they didn't? The polls always swing around before an election.
In the context of our election where Labour are all but guaranteed a big win then the campaigns won't end up changing who ends up in power, but on a local level of course they make a difference. If they didn't then they wouldn't happen.


Up to a point, but the context being Trump facing a trial. It wasn't a completely out of the blue "what if", the people answering that question would have known it was a distinct possibility.

I'd agree that a lot of people are so entrenched in their pro or anti Trump views then it literally doesn't matter what him or Biden do, they'll vote the way they were always going to. I believe the verdict will give some people pause though. How many people and whether it's enough to change the end result is questionable. But we won't be able to tell the difference anyway. It's like speculating whether Arsenal would have won the title had we beaten West Ham and Fulham. All other results being equal yes we would, but it doesn't work like that. Results affect other results, there are different pressures when you're leading from the front. So the honest answer is we'll never know.

The naivety here is actually cute.

[Letters]

I’m sure you’re about to elaborate on this any minute now.

[Letters]

[Niall_Quinn]

I’m sure you’re about to elaborate on this any minute now.

No, honestly. I can see where you get your thoughts from. You aren't the only one, I'm not singling you out. I know. You believe your media is real. I get that. I can't help you because first you have to help yourself. I did show you how they lied to you every single time leading up until now. But you seem to be able to believe THIS TIME, they are telling the truth. So how could I possibly help you until you decide to help yourself?

[Niall_Quinn]

Yes, I know you centralists don't understand locality. It's why Trump wins, and it's why people like you scratch your head and wonder, how does he win? He talks to people on their own level. You might not approve of that level, and certainly the arrogant queers and paedophiles in Washington don't. But your sort never seek to communicate at the local level. You "fly-over" and assume. Which is why the vast majority of people no longer buy your bill of goods. They woke up - lazy bastards, admittedly. All that remains now is for you and your kind to rig the next election and then try to tough it out. But it won't change the minds of the people. Painfully, fatally, you are eventually going to find out you already lost that one.

[Letters]

It's why Trump wins, and it's why people like you scratch your head and wonder, how does he win?

He only won once, in 2016. And there was no mystery about it, he did so because of a sizeable "anyone but Hillary" vote. His cult, while large, won't win him an election. It didn't in 2020 when a half-decent opponent was put up against him. Unfortunately that half-decent opponent was arguably too old then and is definitely too old now. So it's pretty likely that Trump will win again.

He talks to people on their own level.

He talks incoherent shit like the above. And most of what he says isn't even true.
It does seem to play well with quite a large portion of the public, admittedly.

[Letters]

You believe your media is real.

Define "real".

I can't help you because first you have to help yourself. I did show you how they lied to you every single time leading up until now. But you seem to be able to believe THIS TIME, they are telling the truth. So how could I possibly help you until you decide to help yourself?

I'm not sure I need help from someone who, in the depths of paranoia about the government, thought that the army on the streets in Birmingham was to get us used to the presence of troops on the streets. Your basis for that was that they were in uniform. One has to wonder why they were just in Birmingham, was it just that city they were getting ready? And then you went into a spiral of nonsense about marshal law, curfews, checkpoints, etc, etc. Of course when the exact reverse happened and all the restrictions were lifted you refused to acknowledge you were wrong, much less consider why. I have explained why - it's because your worldview is based on incorrect premises.

[Mac76]

it's because your worldview is based on incorrect premises.

Wait, you mean he's like he is because he's living in the wrong house?

[Letters]

Wait, you mean he's like he is because he's living in the wrong house?

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/premise