EU Referndum Exit Poll

[Niall_Quinn]

I don't think I am talking about a small minority. 1 in 8 people voted for UKIP at the last General Election...

Classic. If you vote UKIP you are a racist.

Superb stuff.

[GP]

No brainer, tbh.

[The Emirates Gallactico]

Classic. If you vote UKIP you are a racist.

Superb stuff.

Obviously not. Not all UKIP voters are racist.

But if you're a racist then chances are that you're a UKIP supporter.

[The Emirates Gallactico]

Fuck Daenerys tbh.


And I mean that quite literally.

[Niall_Quinn]

Exit polls are expensive tbh and difficult to do for a referendum where there isn't the past historical data to weigh results. Don't think it's a massive conspiracy to steal the result NQ.

Didn't say it was to steal the vote, they don't actually need to do that this time around because there are many contingencies in place. And it appears Remain has won this one fair and square (well as fair and square as a farce can be). But they may want to pop a couple of extra points on the margin I suppose. The margin will be important.

[Heisenberg]

It's not a trick, it's because it's a referendum. Exit polls primarily calculate swing, so you need a baseline to compare against. Referendums don't tend to have those so they don't really do exit polls.

[Niall_Quinn]

Obviously not. Not all UKIP voters are racist.

But if you're a racist then chances are that you're a UKIP supporter.

I would suspect the likelihood is traditional racists (not respectable racists) and other bottom feeders don't vote at all.

[Niall_Quinn]

It's not a trick, it's because it's a referendum. Exit polls primarily calculate swing, so you need a baseline to compare against. Referendums don't tend to have those so they don't really do exit polls.

A straight up and down exit poll on a referendum would be extremely illuminating. None of the complications you mention exist. The media could do it easily enough, but I suppose the main intent is to ensure a trend doesn't develop that could influence the outcome.

[Heisenberg]

Also I've seen the point about the generational divide in a few places. While I obviously appreciate that people my age are going to deal with the consequences of this vote more than older voters by virtue of having more of our lives ahead of us, it feels like specious reasoning to me because it seems to imply that older people are being vindictive. Regardless of whether they're right or wrong, they (broad strokes to refer to older leave voters) probably think they are doing us a favour rather than deliberately fucking us over. And of course there's the principle of universal suffrage.

[Heisenberg]

That's not really relevant because exit polls can't legally be published until after polls close.