Fewer errors and back hand fuck ups for Federer
Nadal has easier run to semi final with Dolgopolov followed by the winner of Goffin and Rublev
Federer should he get past Kohlscreiber will have to face Del Potro or Dominic Thiem (to get past either has to be playing a lot better than he has so far)
The possibility of them meeting in the semi final is though very real (first ever meeting at Flushing meadows, for which I'd make Nadal overwhelming favourite)
On the other side of the draw, I can potentially see Denis Shapavalov making his way through to the final.
If he beats Carreno Busta, then it's winner of Diego Schwarzmann or Lucas Pouille and then what would be I imagine a semi final meeting with Sam Querrey.