By the way, be careful with stuff like this.Originally Posted by Ollie the Optimist
I don’t know what model you are talking about but it’s typical for models like this to make multiple predictions based on different underlying assumptions.
Of course the press tend to sensationalise and the headlines scream the worst case scenario, but it’s useful to try and find the paper it’s based on to get the full picture
I’m not 100% sure what model it is (imperial, Warwick etc) but I’m taking this from what was reported in the media about SAGE warnings over july 19th and their best cases scenario ended up being worse then what actually happened
Boris is doing what is best for him (he has always done that)
But the data coming out of South Africa seems to imply omicron isnt actually that bad and their numbers are not going through the roof in terms of deaths or admittance to hosptial. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t be the case here.
The other argument made is that South Africa has better immunity because they had bigger waves previously. Again, not saying the scientists are wrong, but i cant quite get my head around that given we have had huge waves of infection plus our vaccination rates are significantly better then South Africa so why wouldn’t we have better immunity?
Lockdowns are an option of last resort. The first lockdown, people bought into it because nhs was under pressure and it was a new thing, the second one we had hte hope of vaccines so again, people bought into it to protect the nhs.
This time, we are all boosted or double jabbed and so far, no pressure on the nhs so its much harder to buy into lockdown. As i said, it is an option of last resort yet some treat it as a normal policy decision, it absolutely isnt. Just look at the damage it does, hospitality & tourism sectors are being destroyed. Pubs have no idea if to order their beer for next week or not.
The leaking of these decisions and avoiding making them is appalling and complete failure in leadership. It leaves many in limbo and that affects jobs etc.
As Letters said, there is no single model and rightly so. A range of scenarios are considered accompanied by a view on probability of the range of models. You may, if you read an entire article see some reference to the modelling methodology and most likely modelling outcomes, you may not. However, it is 99.99% unlikely you will see anything other than the extreme ranges of models screaming from the headlines or prominently featured in the articles.
Reality doesn’t sell newspapers, get clicks or views.
Think about it, how many times have you clicked on something or been outraged by a headline only to go through an entire article and wonder how they arrived at that headline? How many times have you read an article that actually contained an explanation of the modelling and the most likely outcomes predicted.
With all the ‘information’ we now have access to - more than at any time in the history of mankind, we are becoming increasingly misinformed. Sometimes that is funny and we can laugh at all those ‘morans’, sometimes it is far from funny and it leads to conflict and division.
On the last point - where do you think we are now?
If you don’t send this signature to ten people, you will become a Spurs fan.
Where do i think we are now?
It’s a tough question, so far the data coming out Africa etc about omicron is that while massively more transmissible it is seems to be milder then other variants of covid. This probably is a good thing as it means while it spreads faster, it does less harm to people so can be treated like a cold and we carry on as normal.
We are not yet seeing huge increases in deaths or hosptalisatiions and neither is South Africa which is what we would have expected given they had it first and if it was more deadly, that would be shown in teh data.
As i said earlier today, lockdowns & those kind of restrictions are a policy of last resort. There are huge downsides to them that must be factored in when making these decisions. Are we really needing one? I’m not convinced
But...South Africa have only 5.5% of the population 65 and above:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-south-africa/
We have 18.6% of the population in that age group:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nited-kingdom/
So that's a factor.
Fair point but then again, the vast majority of those over 65 are fully vaccinated here & almost all have had their boosters so if that isnt enough, what is
True. As discussed, I don't really know what the right thing is. You're right that hospitalisations and deaths aren't going up, but there is always a lag between cases and those things so I'd expect some increase in a week or two.
But the vaccine should mitigate that, certainly the ratio between cases and hospitalisations is lower this year.
Yes - it was quite a question. But it there is a point behind it. We are so poorly informed, it is impossible to arrive at a conclusion we feel comfortable arriving at.
I haven’t got a clue, but at the very least, I expect those closest to the data and resulting information to be taking decisions based on what is right rather than what is expedient. That is a difficult thing to do because all of the decisions have consequences, some of which may be unintended - i.e. increase deaths arising from other conditions that have fewer NHS resources available because of prioritisation to managing the Covid response and the knock on consequences of the stresses placed on the population losing jobs, businesses and income (though some have done very well out of this).
I have no confidence in the decision making process - there are too many ridiculous examples that make no sense - Scotch eggs, maskless in pubs/clubs but masks at the grocery store - etc.
Lockdown absolutely has to be a last resort, but it would help if people could comply with less onerous measures in crowded spaces.
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Interesting, WHO decided to change the definition of herd immunity and just ignore 100s of 1000s of years of evolution.
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