Champions League QF/SF Draw, 11am GMT

[HCZ_Reborn]

I don’t want to be that guy, but in 17 previous seasons at the Emirates there has only been one season where we’ve done better away from home than at home. It was 2020/2021 - we got 33 points on the road, compared to 28 at the Emirates which was our worst ever season at home going back to the 1980s…and I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was the season where we had no supporters in the ground.

Same in Europe, even with the defeats to Bayern our home form has outstripped our away form. Which is what you’d expect from any team.

There are a few caveats, for example Tuesday night was the first time under Arteta that we’d won a home tie in the knockout phases of a European tournament….first time in six attempts

And it’s just my opinion but I actually think it was playing at home in the second leg that was the reason we went through against Porto. We struggled to create chances at home but that was because we found it nearly impossible to deal with a team that compressed the space (and threw themselves to the floor all the time ) the way they did. I think we do need to adapt to deal with teams that play that way, but i had a look at the group stages the other day and although they won both games…Barca struggled with Porto as well…and just as much at home (wherever it is they are playing this season) as well as at the Dragao.

I think Bayern having no fans at the Emirates does give us a big advantage.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not to say we can’t get a result in Germany. But I’d rather not have to depend on one

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

I don’t want to be that guy, but in 17 previous seasons at the Emirates there has only been one season where we’ve done better away from home than at home. It was 2020/2021 - we got 33 points on the road, compared to 28 at the Emirates which was our worst ever season at home going back to the 1980s…and I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was the season where we had no supporters in the ground.

Same in Europe, even with the defeats to Bayern our home form has outstripped our away form. Which is what you’d expect from any team.

There are a few caveats, for example Tuesday night was the first time under Arteta that we’d won a home tie in the knockout phases of a European tournament….first time in six attempts

And it’s just my opinion but I actually think it was playing at home in the second leg that was the reason we went through against Porto. We struggled to create chances at home but that was because we found it nearly impossible to deal with a team that compressed the space (and threw themselves to the floor all the time ) the way they did. I think we do need to adapt to deal with teams that play that way, but i had a look at the group stages the other day and although they won both games…Barca struggled with Porto as well…and just as much at home (wherever it is they are playing this season) as well as at the Dragao.

I think Bayern having no fans at the Emirates does give us a big advantage.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not to say we can’t get a result in Germany. But I’d rather not have to depend on one

I think you missed my opinion a bit.

I didn't say (or mean to say) that we get more points away than we do at home, nor that any team does.

My argument was that the modern player doesn't thrive on pressure and thus we see teams that have must win games at home tend to lose or muck it up.

This was not the way it was in previous generations, and thus we get more away wins than we ever have in football. To make it simpler, its like a percentage argument, if a dominant side in the past got 70% of it points from home form and the remaining 30% from away form, it has changed nowadays, to be more likely something like 58% to 42%.

I haven't done any study or anything but to me its just obvious that home form of most teams isn't what it use to be. I wouldn't want to use your Coronavirus example as proving me right, as that wouldn't even count as every game then was devoid of fans, thus devoid of pressure, thus negating a very important reason I think teams fail to dominate the way they use to at home.

Anyway I think UEFA kind of agrees that the chasm between Home and Away advantage isn't that great anymore, as I believe that was kind of the argument they used to get rid of the away goals rule.

Its just an opinion though but I do hope it holds against Bayern as I really want to beat them in Munich, in front of their fans, no matter what the Emirates result is.

[HCZ_Reborn]

I think you missed my opinion a bit.

I didn't say (or mean to say) that we get more points away than we do at home, nor that any team does.

My argument was that the modern player doesn't thrive on pressure and thus we see teams that have must win games at home tend to lose or muck it up.

This was not the way it was in previous generations, and thus we get more away wins than we ever have in football. To make it simpler, its like a percentage argument, if a dominant side in the past got 70% of it points from home form and the remaining 30% from away form, it has changed nowadays, to be more likely something like 58% to 42%.

I haven't done any study or anything but to me its just obvious that home form of most teams isn't what it use to be. I wouldn't want to use your Coronavirus example as proving me right, as that wouldn't even count as every game then was devoid of fans, thus devoid of pressure, thus negating a very important reason I think teams fail to dominate the way they use to at home.

Anyway I think UEFA kind of agrees that the chasm between Home and Away advantage isn't that great anymore, as I believe that was kind of the argument they used to get rid of the away goals rule.

Its just an opinion though but I do hope it holds against Bayern as I really want to beat them in Munich, in front of their fans, no matter what the Emirates result is.

I’m not sure where you’ve got the idea that Choking is a modern phenomena

I can give you plenty of examples of teams falling at the final hurdle in sporting history.

What I think you seem to be saying is that having the crowd on your side is somehow not as influential as it was.


I’m not buying it. I don’t know why UEFA scrapped the away goal rule but the fact is it’s always been a totally arbitrary way to settle a tie.

And a side that loses 1-0 at home but wins 2-1 away can advance anyway so it was nothing to do with determining that there was home advantage


There is a clear psychological advantage to playing at home, the crowd is one factor and the familiarity of the ground is another. If there was no discernible difference this would be borne out by comparative results home and away being similar but it’s not.


Honestly though I think it’s best to recognise where we’ve come to an impasse, I foresee lots of very similar posts where you tell me I’ve not understood your point and I will invariably reply yes I have but I don’t agree/don’t see the evidence for what you’re saying.


And apart from anything else, it’s completely academic anyway

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

I’m not sure where you’ve got the idea that Choking is a modern phenomena

I can give you plenty of examples of teams falling at the final hurdle in sporting history.

What I think you seem to be saying is that having the crowd on your side is somehow not as influential as it was.


I’m not buying it. I don’t know why UEFA scrapped the away goal rule but the fact is it’s always been a totally arbitrary way to settle a tie.

And a side that loses 1-0 at home but wins 2-1 away can advance anyway so it was nothing to do with determining that there was home advantage


There is a clear psychological advantage to playing at home, the crowd is one factor and the familiarity of the ground is another. If there was no discernible difference this would be borne out by comparative results home and away being similar but it’s not.


Honestly though I think it’s best to recognise where we’ve come to an impasse, I foresee lots of very similar posts where you tell me I’ve not understood your point and I will invariably reply yes I have but I don’t agree/don’t see the evidence for what you’re saying.


And apart from anything else, it’s completely academic anyway

Yeah, the bolded, is pretty close to the opinion I am expressing, or should I say, the reason why I think we have more away wins than we have ever had in football (if I am correct).

Oh and clearly I never suggested choking is new to sport, what I am saying is that these new generation of footballers don't seem to be able to make home advantage count as it use to. Choking is clearly not exclusive to home advantage as we'd be expected to beat Barnet where ever we played them and losing no matter where, would still be choking

After my last post, I thought to myself, this should be something that the marvels of AI should be able to clear up in just a few seconds...I mean it is pure statistics... so I asked both google AI and Chatgpt if they could give me the percentage of away wins in the EPL for every season ( I mean come on, its just 30 something years)....unfortunately they both came back with crap answers asking me to go check sport databases!! What great technological leaps we have made

[HCZ_Reborn]

Well it’s not true of us. The highest points total we achieved on the road was the double winning season of 01/02. Where we won 14 games and drew 5. We’ve come not at all close to repeating that high water mark.


I think we are performing much better away from home in the last few seasons than we were, but that’s really relative to the real pits under AW (in his last season we won 4 away from home and lost 11 - including 7 in a row)


But when you look at results against big sides, we won last month at home to Liverpool, not won away at Anfield since 2012.


City we beat last year at home, haven’t won away there since 2015 and that in turn was our first win there since 2010


There are always outliers (winning three times in a row at the Bridge, compared to twice in the same period at home)

City? Well there probably is evidence that their home form and away form is similar (though less so this season and last)

But yeah have to admit not seeing a trend towards equivalence, but not to say it won’t go that way

[Letters]

I don’t think Highbury was ever that intimidating.
I’m not sure The Emirates is either.

[HCZ_Reborn]

I don’t think Highbury was ever that intimidating.
I’m not sure The Emirates is either.

No but I think there is more factors to home advantage than purely intimidation. The crowd is not just about shitting up away teams, it’s about giving succour to home team. Yes unfortunately it was called the Library at times. But in the big games (especially the NLD) the noise level is marked

[Letters]

No but I think there is more factors to home advantage than purely intimidation. The crowd is not just about shitting up away teams, it’s about giving succour to home team. Yes unfortunately it was called the Library at times. But in the big games (especially the NLD) the noise level is marked

Home advantage is definitely a thing and the crowd does play its part getting the team going. The crowd are probably a bit more raucous right now as things are going well so there is more of a bond between the club and its fans than there’s been for a long time.
I was more responding to 21’s assertion that Highbury was intimidating. It was probably known as a tough place to come because we’ve historically been one of the better teams, but we’re hardly Galatasaray.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Home advantage is definitely a thing and the crowd does play its part getting the team going. The crowd are probably a bit more raucous right now as things are going well so there is more of a bond between the club and its fans than there’s been for a long time.
I was more responding to 21’s assertion that Highbury was intimidating. It was probably known as a tough place to come because we’ve historically been one of the better teams, but we’re hardly Galatasaray.

Ah, yeah the library was never intimidating


The places that rely on intimidation never really work in a footballing sense. The Velodrome in Marseille is a veritable cauldron but we won there quite easily as I recall on both visits, the intimidation factor is the fact that their ultras will kick the shit out of you.

Same with the old Ali Sami Yen. Good record against Turkish teams, but wouldn’t want to go there to watch us play because their fans get very stabby.


Then again I’ve only ever watched one game of football on the continent (was champions league but wasn’t Arsenal) and that was Sparta Prague vs Panathinaikos. Fortunately the atmosphere in the stands was as sedate as the game.


Even the Greek fans seemed almost put out that they had to celebrate the goals on their way to a 2-0 win